That's. [INAUDIBLE] I would really recommend, this is for future, when you kind of feel more confident and comfortable with this stuff. This is not right away, all right this website?
>> [LAUGH] >> Don't try to do this. Actually, please do because then [INAUDIBLE]. >> [LAUGH] >> So what do these things look like? This is from the recent an American of one with the whole thing. This is a typical, kind of a tilt screen. On the screen because, A is a nice colic. You can see here, in barrow 1, on a $2 bet, $7.80, right? Place bet, show bet. And, this is probably what it should look like, right? This proportional going down. On average, winning bets on a $2 bet, we're going to give this $2.10, and come back $20. On average earned, two dollars and ten cents is the minimum that must be paid out on almost all cracks. Sometimes what happens is that the amount spent on one course is more than all the other courses combined. So they have to instill this minimum so that we're actually now losing money [INAUDIBLE]. Place bets, obviously going to go down a little bit. Averaging, kind of level out to dollars, so that's [INAUDIBLE] $10. You can see here down below, $2 is that one, $2 price jacked up super there. A lot more money right? And on average, and when you start to win maybe considerably more on these other apps. These numbers that I regretfully came up with what I kind of assume then in the past this averages each tract of these piece of information when you buy their initial programs. This is from the fourth meadows [INAUDIBLE] Okay. [INAUDIBLE] The more specific your bet, the lower the odds. But hopefully, the higher the payoff, right? But it all depends. It all depends on are you betting with the chalk, or are you betting against the chalk? If you agree with that chalk. Rich, okay. If you kind of looked at all the variables and things, yeah, this horse is going to win. You'd use that with a few launch apps, right, that will help kind of increase your payout hopefully. If you use don't use it in a right, because hopefully you'll be able to get everyone else. Make sense? [NOISE] Okay kind of right. This relates to a it natural investing rate. Risk and reward right? Do we want to be more risky or do we want to be less risky with your money? Well you're less risky with your money your reward vein is lower right? And that happens as well, right? The more specific you are with your bets, the riskier they are and potentially [INAUDIBLE]. This is from my friend Warren Buffett, risk comes from not knowing what you are doing. Right now, you are at your riskiest, all right. So be very careful when you in a situation. >> [INAUDIBLE] again. >> Are there even more bets? Yes. It just kind of gets crazier from here on out. These Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5/6/7. These are not within one race, these are now across multiple races. So this gets pretty complicated after a while. Daily Double is essentially, you're are picking the winners of one race and then, the race right out, right?
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For this, does that answer the question? >> Yes [INAUDIBLE]. >> This is kind of a you see a long shot being in the show pool, you may want to consider pushing that up, right? If everyone thinks it's going to win third place, well potentially awesome, getting excited for and third or first, that's [INAUDIBLE] it's possible.
Are there more bets? Yes exotics. Exotics are getting a little bit more into the weed, so I'm not going to go too far into this. I'm going to focus on exacta and trifecta. Exacta is exactly that, you're the first and second course in that order. Okay, so you're getting a little bit more specific in what your bets are. There's the trifecta, first, second, and third place. There's also a super-fecta, first, second, third, and fourth place. These dollar bets and $0.10 bets are basically kind of the average amount that you spend on those, and how much they cost for each one of those. However, just taking one of these bets isn't really a good idea. So let's say we have a dollar exactly on 1 and 3, 1 has to win first place and 3 has to win second place, and you only have a single dollar to bet. However, it's this idea of boxing these things in. Boxing these things thinks as I don't use any of these horses in any order, right. So I'm betting not just on one three, but also thee and four, right. So here we have two dollar bets for your dollar. And you vouch trying to get some more and more involve right? What are the exact amounts on one two and three? Would be six dollar amounts. Right? So six dollar increments. And dollar trifecta on one, three, two would be just that order right? Not lost [INAUDIBLE] status one, three- Two, however, if we do decide to do that, trifecta box and 132 is $6 right? [INAUDIBLE] $6 [INAUDIBLE] Does that make sense, a little bit? Okay, good. Can you guys do an exact dollars box on 1, 2, 3, and 4? You thought you could. I was talking to my math instructor, you're not respecting math questions in all this? [LAUGH] Come on. >> It's full math. >> Okay. [LAUGH] Why is it? >> 4 times the percentage. >> She did it so quickly and so efficiently, mainly because there's a whole branch of math called combinatorics Okay, peep this actual counting market and stuff is a huge part of Palbaline statistics, all right? If you're interested in that please, please, please take statistics for any of those classes that we have on offer because they're great. Okay, if you can imagine this gets harrier when you add more four horses, right? Dollar on five horses would be 60 bucks. On seven horses would be $210.00. At 10 cents per however, would only be $2.40. Is this likely to happen, do you think? I don't think so, right? I mean you're looking for the one, two, three, and four horses to get first, second, third, and fourth, right? You're getting very specific in your prediction there. Overall though, this is one more typical, [INAUDIBLE] kind of that in general, what we do is we say. One, three, zero [INAUDIBLE] for the one, three [INAUDIBLE] win first. And then one, three, five versus the third, second to [INAUDIBLE] one, three, five, six to win third. And then we say b of all. So all address in that last one. So we don't know, right? It was just very weird and they were very. >> [LAUGH] >> They did not like what I was doing in the least and it kind of showed that there was something else going on. Andreas, yes, there are many many upper cuts.
We'll talk mainly about these. We'll get into the other ones a little bit. There has been an increase in okay. Linda will get beat out if that person Makes first place. A place that will pay up if a person wins first or second place. A show bet will pay up if the horse wins first, second, or third. So this is really important because people misinterpret these bets all of the time. We'll do this example real quick. When placing show bets for this we have furling speed, fast familiar last Can the slope though and we're looking at the pools here. Right? The wind pool, the place pool and the show pool. I'm not going to show the actual calculations but if you do this right the one force wind, it's the last chance for second. Capacitor is third place. This is what the pay on sulphur weight. Now in the parentheses indicates the actual value of what should happen, It's always rounded to the nearest five to zero cent, because that's kind of the. There's a technical term for it. I forgot it. But yeah, it'll always reduce down to the. So you see here, Win, Place, and Show. And in general this is how it looks. We'll see the example but early, if you had a dollar ticket, and obviously would be $1.85. Place, $1.60. 2.05 for show. What's funny there? >> Seems like Joe is >> [INAUDIBLE] >> Some of that math problem [INAUDIBLE] yes. >> [LAUGH] >> Yes there is something strange going on here right? With the $1 win method there's only one way to win with that. However, we only made $1.85 on our $1 win. $1 Show method there is actually three ways to win Right the horse came first second or third. This kind of leads to our first real misconception that a lot of people have. They think that these bets are for that specific race and not the ones above. Right? This happens quite often and this is actually an actual technical term in the stock market >> Called arbitrage. Arbitrage for investments are the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset in order to profit from a difference in the price. So if exactly what we're doing, right? We're not buying and selling this thing immediately, what's actually happening is we have something from the same price, but different risk bluffs, right? Different risk of not winning or winning [INAUDIBLE] so whenever this thing happens, trend two. Win, place, and show pools should all be proportional to each other, right? If a horse is a favorite to win, you should see their, you know, show pool being kind of the favorite, as well, right? Because that's proportional. If it's not, then you get a situation like. Like this, right? Where that show pool was really under that. So that shouldn't more of that. So this leads us to our trend two with the show pool, under that as we saw on the show pool in Yeah? >> So the reason that the show pool was overvalued, or under bet, is the people doing the betting. >> Exactly. >> Some of the public did not realize what was going on, it's not [INAUDIBLE] >> No, no, no, no. We'll talk about the track's involvement a little later on, but yet, that's kind of the core issue here, we're betting against other people, and their misconceptions of what these bets may or may not [INAUDIBLE] So that's kind of the core idea, we're betting against everyone else and their information. |
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March 2019
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